Sunday, August 5, 2012

The Momo's are at it again............................

It's getting to be rather ridiculous when the broken market can be juiced like it was with Friday's poor jobs number. The numbers are complete fabrications when you get into the details but don't let that hold you back from jumping in with both feet. We all know its the Wall Street guys trying to bump their month end balance sheets while the retail investors (most of us) sit there blocked out of the move since it essentially is complete by the time the market opens.

The High Frequency Traders or Bots win another one.

This market is moving on every feel good comment generated by anybody in Europe or CNBC. Rumors run rampant and moves can turn on a dime and destroy your positions in a heart beat. In the meantime, logic says that the rally will end with a sudden burst of reality. The charts are telling us that we are running out of time and need to be very careful going forward.

Here are three charts to try and make the point. The first is the Dow daily that shows you that while price is rising the OBV indicator is now lagging behind. This indicator was designed around the belief that price follows volume. Note the upper blue trend line on price is pointing higher, while the one on the OBV is pointing lower.



































The second chart is that of the Vanguard Total World ETF. The most important thing to take away from this chart is the fact that it peaked in 2011 and is making lower highs, at least so far. The lower window on the chart contains the SP500 index which may have peaked earlier this year. Momentum indicators suggest we are weakening and the world markets may have the just called the next move lower.









 The final chart is the VIX (volatility index) that shows you we are at an extreme level of complacency and markets normally jolt you back to reality by correcting. The red indicator in the lower window of the chart is a leading indicator and it is moving lower. Something to keep an eye on.




Just be careful.



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