Here are two charts I watch to get the confirming signal that the trend has really made a turn. The first is the VIX/HYG spread shown in the following chart.
The VIX (volatility index) in blue is floating near the 14 level which is a very high level of complacency - no fear. The high yield bond ETF is approaching a new high for the last 3 years.
We need to see the VIX rise sharply which will signal a change in investor sentiment from bullish to bearish.
The window in the middle on the chart is the daily SP500. It is trending higher at the moment.
The lower window on the chart shows the spread (difference) between the the VIX and HYG. The greater the difference the more likely a change in trend is near.
The second chart is the Institutional Investor Index. These are the big guys in the commercial buying and they tend to lead the pack. Right now we have a chart that shows the index is still under the long term upper trend channel (blue line) and the index is still making lower highs which is a bearish signal. If the index breaks out above the trend line and can hold the new level it is likely that we will see the market go much higher before retracing.
We are at or very near a significant change in trend ......... be patient. Bernanke also realizes the fact that things are slowing down and he had to make an intervention before the open. Sooner or later the folks will realize he's just blowing smoke to keep the market levitating.
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