Close to a top but no cigar as yet................. ?

Below you will find a series of charts that should tell you that further upside in this market, at least in the near term, is beginning to look a lot riskier by the day.

But first ......with a very crystal clear chart and commentary, this is the reason the Government continues to lie to everyone and generate bogus data to reinforce the lies. The chart from Shadowstats.com (shadow government statistics) via TheBurningPlatform.com, shows you where the real rate of inflation is running today in blue. The lie from the government is in red. If Bernanke had to publish the rate at 10% he would immediately have to start raising interest rates to combat the run away inflation. If he did that the increase in interest rates, even if it was just 5%, would cause the payment on the National Debt to go from $440 billion per year to $1.7 Trillion per year and that my friends would be game over ..... no more lies. We're broke!

So in keeping with the dissemination of lies, here are a few more charts that show how hard it is for the Bureaucrats to continue lying about all the good news that Lord Obama has wrought with straight faces. But as long as the "Muppets", a phrase Goldman Sachs is fond of when referring to its clients, believe the garbage they are being fed, all is well in the kingdom.

Chart and Comments from ZeroHedge.com

With a win loss record lately of 11 misses out of 13 economic data points, this mornings release of New Home Sales made it 12 of 14 as they missed horribly. Against an expectation of a +1.3% gain, new home sales fell 1.6% MoM but what is even more shocking (and surely in retrospect would have caused the market to subside aggressively) is the massive revision of the previous month. From a -0.9% 'modest' fall, January's data was revised to a massive 5.4% drop MoM - the largest drop in 13 months! This is the largest downward revision since March 2009. Perhaps KB Home is not the outlier and the 80% rally in the Homebuilder ETF was a little overdone. I think there have been 20 or so calls for a bottom in housing. Will the Momo's ever learn.

Chart from article at ZeroHedge.com

The Citigroup Economic surprise indexes at the right show we are beginning the rollover that's been long overdue. Just another sign that caution is warranted.






The charts above continue to show the green shoots rally is really a liquidity driven "hopium" frenzy created by Mr. FED. The charts below may be of interest for those of you not familiar with the Bradley Stock Market Forecast Model. You may want to keep a copy of the next chart just to see how well it does for the balance of the year. (Notice the major turn date of 3/16 shown on the chart)


The inventor of the chart is a Donald Bradley who in the 1940's provided numerical values to the astrological planet configurations and thereby created a value graph shown to the left. The key to understanding the graph is to remember that it provides good evidence of possible turning points but it does not forecast magnitudes for the move. Using the chart along with other key indicators you can decide whether the next change in trend is likely to be up or down. The next chart shows you how the forecast is doing so far this year on the Dow.

Caution remains the name of the game for the short term